This semi final is seen as one of the more "difficult" of the two amongst fans and I tend to agree. There are five ex-Yugoslav states in this semi (Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia Herzegovina and FYR Macedonia). These countries have tended to exchange votes in the past and in the case of FYR Macedonia, the 6 or 7 points received here and there from neighbours have been enough to get them into the finals (2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007).
In fairness there is an incredibly strong showing from the Balkan region this year and it would be dismissive to suggest that these five countries will automatically qualify. Anything can happen in Eurovision. There are of course other countries voting and as 2011 showed, some countries (Turkey, Armenia, FYR Macedonia) are no longer sure-fire qualifiers.
This second semi final also sees some of the big favourites battle it out for a place in the Eurovision final. Sweden is the hot favourite to win Eurovision and Serbia is riding high in the betting odds too. When listening to all 18 of these songs, I struggled to choose just ten qualifiers. There are bound to be some upsets and tears before bedtime!
As with semi final one, I have reviewed each song and tried to predict which entries will proceed to the grand final. I have also included an estimated placing for each qualifier. Of course these are only my opinions and I dare say there will be others who disagree with me - especially where Sweden is concerned!
SERBIA"Nije Ljubav Stvar" performed by Željko Joksimović
Zeljko is back with another strong song albeit one which is not as instant as “Lane Moje”, his second placed entry from 2004. This is likely to be one of the higher placing Balkan entries and he performs well. Given his massive following in the region and his performance ability, I think this is a certain qualifier to the final.
Qualifying? Yes
Predicted position in final: 6-10
FYR MACEDONIA"Crno I Belo" performed by Kaliopi
This is a strong entry from FYROM. Kaliopi was chosen to represent her country at Eurovision in 1996 but failed at the pre-selection. The girl can sing and has strong stage presence despite looking a little like Nancy Dell'Olio. In a semi with five ex-Yugoslav countries voting this should score points but it may also appeal to a wider audience including the all-important juries. I have heard the English version of this song and very nice it is too.
Qualifying? Yes
Predicted position in final: 18-22
NETHERLANDS"You And Me" performed by Joan Franka
I initially didn’t quite understand the appeal of this song but after a few listens I think it’s one of the best Dutch entries for years. The Netherlands have been incredibly unlucky over the years and have not qualified since 2004 despite a number of competent entries. I hope for their sake this qualifies. Some fans are tipping this as a winner. As much as I'd love Eurovision 2013 to be held in the Netherlands, I can't see this happening somehow.
Qualifying? Yes (only just!)
Predicted position in final: 10-16
MALTA"This Is The Night" performed by Kurt Calleja
Malta, like the UK and Ireland, has struggled in Eurovision since free language was introduced. Their entries have also not been strong enough and the tradition continues this year. I do like this a lot and it’s better than last year but think this will struggle. I would dearly love Malta to win Eurovision but I don't think it's going to be this year.
Qualifying? No
BELARUS"We Are The Heroes" performed by Litesound
The great Belarussian public voted for Alyona Lanskaya to represent the country at Eurovision with the song "All my life". However after the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko conducted an investigation into her "unfair" victory in the national final, Litesound were chosen to represent the country at Eurovision. It is of course good to see that the authorities in Belarus are tackling corruption*. I don't mind this song but I don't see it setting the scoreboard on fire.
Qualifying? No
PORTUGAL"Vida Minha" performed by Filipa Sousa
After a few promising entries in 2008 and 2009, Portugal have returned to form (the form being bland ballads!) This goes in one ear and out the other no matter how many times I try to listen to it.
Qualifying? No
UKRAINE"Be My Guest" performed by Gaitana
Gaitana has a terrific voice and stage presence. Whilst this song is a bit repetitive, it’ll be played everywhere in the coming months since it’s their Euro 2012 anthem and Ukraine know how to stage and sell a song. I think it’s one to watch. I personally hope she storms it especially after racist comments from politician Yuriy Syrotyuk who claimed that Gaitana is "not an organic representative of Ukrainian culture". Vile.
Qualifying? Yes
Predicted position in final: 4-8
BULGARIA"Love Unlimited" performed by Sofi Marinova
In a ballad-heavy year you might think that an up-tempo, electro-pop song would stand out. This simply doesn’t and does nothing for me. It might grow on me but at the minute I think this is lacking something (a chorus and decent tune for a start!)
Qualifying: No
SLOVENIA"Verjamem" performed by Eva Boto
This song is reminiscent of “Molitva”, the Serbian winner from 2007 (not surprising considering that is has the same songwriters!) I like this a lot, it builds nicely. However I'm not sure about the hair scrunchies that the backing singers are wearing. It’s nice to see Sandra on backing vocals for Slovenia again – one of the friendliest faces at Eurovision. I think this will qualify but ultimately their fate in the final depends on a strong vocal performance.
Qualifying? Yes
Predicted position in final: 8-12
CROATIA"Nebo" performed by Nina Badrić
Another Balkan ballad although not as instant as some of the others. This is a grower which isn't always good when it comes to qualifying for the final. Apparently Nina has given up sex to concentrate on singing. Judging by the video she is missing it a lot!
Qualifying? No – borderline
Qualifying? No – borderline
SWEDEN"Euphoria" performed by Loreen
Loreen, or Saint Loreen of Sweden, as I like to call her, is the big fan favourite and is riding high in the betting odds. I don’t mind this song but don’t think it’s the masterpiece that others are claiming it is. It's essentially a Clubland track that you might see advertised on TV. Her interpretation is very Kate Bush and whilst striking, I think it borders on the pretentious. Saying that, I'll be dancing to it in Baku. It’ll qualify although I can’t see it making the top ten in the final. You never know, this might even "do a Kate Ryan". In a tough semi there are bound to be some upsets and this could be it. Controversial.
Qualifying? Yes
Predicted position in final: 12-16
GEORGIA"I'm A Jocker" performed by Anri Jokhadze
What a jock! This is a ridiculous entry but it also one which is fun and stands out and Anri can perform. I watched the Georgian final which was a noisy affair and this was the one which seemed to be the most memorable. I think this will appeal to the lunatic elements. I don’t think Georgia is going to break their 100% qualification record this year. I do hope they are going to have a party this year again - Georgian parties at Eurovision are quite simply the best!
Qualifying? Yes
Predicted position in final: 20-26
TURKEY"Love Me Back" performed by Can Bonomo
As last year showed, Turkey cannot rest on its laurels. This year they have ditched the heavy rock and gone back to a tried and tested formula; the ethnic number! This is a pretty unusual song, and whilst I like it, I find it difficult to gauge how it will fare. The singer, Can, has a certain charisma which I think will translate into points on the night. It wouldn't be a Turkish entry without some belly dancing though - fingers crossed we get some!
Qualifying? Yes
Predicted position in final: 10-15
ESTONIA"Kuula" performed by Ott Lepland
I admit I will probably always be biased when it comes to my beloved Eestimaa. However I genuinely love this song. It is one of my favourite entries of 2012. I have knowledge of Estonian and this soaring ballad has lovely lyrics and I think he performs the song with heart. It’s a tough semi though and I have a horrible feeling this might just fall short. I hope I'm wrong.
Qualifying? Yes – very borderline but I think the juries might like this one.
Predicted position in final: 12-16
SLOVAKIA"Don't Close Your Eyes" performed by Max Jason Mai
This is a very noisy rock song which makes Lordi's 2006 winner seem positively MOR! Initially I did not like this at all but it’s very well performed and I think it’s a pretty decent song which stands out. I can’t see this having wide enough appeal to make it through though. I guess it all depends on the performance and that jury vote.
Qualifying? No - borderline
NORWAY"Stay" performed by Tooji
Norway have entered Eric Saade! Only Tooji can actually sing and has a better song! I think it will have wide appeal to girls and gays alike and the Eastern flavour of the song will go down well in Baku. It's catchy, has good choreography and he knows how to work the camera. At 22/1 this is a good outside bet.
Qualifying? Yes
Predicted position in final: 1-6
BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA"Korake Ti Znam" performed by MayaSar
Yet another Balkan ballad! Is a pattern starting to emerge here? I think this is markedly blander than the other ballads in this semi. If this qualifies it’ll be by the skin of its teeth but I can’t see that happening. This might be the year that Bosnia Herzegovina misses the final for the first time since the semi finals were introduced.
Qualifying? No
LITHUANIA"Love Is Blind" performed by Donny Montell
This is a slow song which then builds into a mid-tempo number. Donny starts off wearing a blindfold before ripping it off and stomping around the stage. Donny has a great voice although I kept waiting for this to go somewhere but it didn't. After the sign language last year I find this a little contrived and uncomfortable to watch. I don’t think I’ll be alone.
Qualifying? No
Predicted Qualifiers from Eurovision Song Contest Semi Final Two:
(in no particular order)
NORWAY
ESTONIA
TURKEY
SERBIA
FYR MACEDONIA
NETHERLANDS
UKRAINE
SLOVENIA
SWEDEN
GEORGIA
* The Council of Europe has barred Belarus from membership since 1997 for undemocratic voting and election irregularities.
Predicted Qualifiers from Eurovision Song Contest Semi Final Two:
(in no particular order)
NORWAY ESTONIA TURKEY SERBIA FYR MACEDONIA NETHERLANDS UKRAINE SLOVENIA SWEDEN GEORGIA* The Council of Europe has barred Belarus from membership since 1997 for undemocratic voting and election irregularities.
Hey Paul,
ReplyDeleteAlthough the Balkans will vote for each other, its gonna be tough for some of them to qualify -especially the weaker songs like Croatia and Macedonia. Many East European countries do not vote for the Balkans - in Oslo Croatia's Feminem did not get any votes from countries such as Ukraine, Lithuania, Georgia, Romania etc - not even one point. Others such as Bulgaria and Azerbaijan only awarded 3 or less.
I think Bosnia is very strong, and perfectly drawn for an easy qualification, but Georgia and Netherlands are strugglers. As ever, I love Portugal, but its a non-starter this year. belarus is understated and Slovakia is the dark horse -especially with a strong stage video backdrop.
thanks God im not the only person which mind didn't take by that Loreen)
ReplyDeleteAgain, I mostly agree on your predicted qualifiers (to a slightly lesser extent). I have trouble picking it with both semis actually, the first because it’s weaker and the second because it is so strong, as usual. It’s strange how that happens.
ReplyDeleteIt will be an amazing moment if Joan qualifies. Like Switzerland were last year, I think the Dutch would be thrilled to make the final even if they fall flat when they get there. It would also be a shame if Joan has to cart a truckload of feathers to Baku for one night only.
I totally agree on Portugal. All the times I’ve listened to it, five minutes later I’ve forgotten how it goes. At least last year they had a bit of an ear worm going on. Andrej Babić is normally better than this!
I love Bulgaria, but you’re probably right on the no-qualification front.
Not overly sold on Sweden, hey? It’s a great song and I’ll be surprised if it misses out on a Top 10 placing, but with every single bleeding OGAE douze heading Loreen’s way, it would be nice for Sweden to not win the whole thing. I like a surprise, or at least a good battle as the points are coming in.
Estonia is also one of my favourites this year, in my top 3 for sure. It gives me goose bumps. But it seems the fans are divided – it’s either amazing, or boring.
Norway is up there too, for me. I completely agree with your take on Tooji. I wish people would stop comparing him to Saade though. Saade was not the first young, attractive, less-than-impressive vocalist to grace Eurovison with his presence.
At the moment, for me it’s Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Estonia, Netherlands, Norway, Serbia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey and Ukraine to the final. I don’t know about Macedonia. Kaliopi’s a big star, but FYROM have a tendency to just miss out, ending up in 11th or 12th in the semi.